This is the first of an occasional series of profiles of electorates for the 2004 Federal Election (FedElec04 it would no doubt be, if some marketing graduates got their hands on it, possibly as part of the AEC's contribution to Work for the Dole, which would in turn become Work4daDole). Thanks to the fine folks at Mumble, a newly updated and recalculated Mackerras pendulum is available for all to see. In fairness to all, seats will be discussed in order from most marginal to least marginal, or until I get bored, whichever comes sooner.
First up is the seat of Solomon. This is an NT seat that covers a fair chunk (a technical term) of Darwin. The seat is held by the Country Liberal Party's David Tollner by just 0.1% (a mere 45 votes decided the seat in '01... sorry, FedElec01). The Labor candidate for the seat is a local, Jim Davidson, who has a background in construction. If the government is on the nose, then Tollner is likely to feel it. Given how well Clare Martin and her territory Labor team are travelling, the party may enjoy a flow-on effect federally. A territory election is also due rather soon. Purely speculative, but one would imagine that Mark Latham's no-nonsense style would go down well in Darwin. Tollner hasn't done himself too many favours with his recent airbourne drunken antics.
The verdict - a probable gain to the ALP.