Ultimately, however, for Newton-Brown the 4.3% swing required is just a tad beyond him. Accepting that the statewide swing to the Liberals will be 2.5%, and that Newton-Brown's personal vote may earn him a further 1%, he's still short of the mark. For most voters, the local battle is a mere sideshow to the heavy-hitters - Bracks and Baillieu - and their efforts will count for far more than that of local candidates.
So for Prahran, my prediction is a Lupton victory, with a decent sized swing against him. As unfashionable as it is to say it, in this battle we've been blessed with two quality candidates, and whoever gets in will be a deserving victor. For the loser, this battle will be but a mere stepping stone to bigger and better things.
Just one sleep to go!
A smorgasbord of candidates awaits Prahran voters.