Monday, October 18, 2004

Ari as an electoral Nostradamus

It's time for a bit of housekeeping, closing off the strands of the election coverage. During the length of it, plenty of predictions were made in 10 crucial seats around the country, as well as a couple of more general predictions on election eve. No matter how wrong I happen to be (and remember, I did predict that the Liberals might win the 2002 Victorian state election) I know I'll never be quite as wrong as Roy Morgan:

Final Morgan Poll - ALP Ahead, Too Close to Call - Possible Hung Parliament

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Finding No. 3795 - October 09, 2004


Anyhow, in no particular order, my predictions for the marginals, and how they ended up:

- Solomon, NT: "The verdict - a probable gain to the ALP." Do'h, a bad start to the predictions. The CLP's Dave Tollner managed to hold on to his super-slender marginal, and in fact increase his margin.

- Dobell, NSW: "Prediction - Ticehurst to hold it for the Libs." Indeed he did, quite safely in the end, getting elected without even needing to go to preferences.

- Canning, WA : "Prediction - Randall will avoid being a one-term-wonder for a second time and will hold the seat." Again correct, with Randall increasing his primary vote my a massive 11.2%. The swing to the government was on big-time in the west.

- Adelaide, SA: "Prediction - the Libs SA vote to struggle, and this one will fall to the ALP." Indeed, after a close count, sitting member Trish Worth has conceded, the the ALP welcomes some new talent to the parliament in Kate Ellis.

- Brisbane, Qld: "Ultimately, however, the seat is likely to be caught up in the nationwide swing to the ALP, and Bevis will hold on." Well, the outcome was correct, but the reasoning was not. The swing was definately on... to the Liberals, and mysteriously this seat managed to defy the trend with a 3% swing to Labor. Does homophobia rear it's ugly head again?

- Hindmarsh, SA: "This one will stick with the government." This one remains too close to call, with 0.07% in it at this stage.

- Parramatta, NSW: "The tip - a gain to the ALP." And the ALP it was, in the end, farewelling Ross Cameron from the parliament. Perhaps there'll be a place for him in Family First. Then again, perhaps not.

- Kingston, SA: "Cox to win in a canter." At this stage, it's too close to call with Cox ahead by 0.09%. If a racing metaphor was to be chosen, the victory would surely be by a nose rather than in a canter.

- Melbourne Ports, Victoria: "For Southwick to win this one, he will need to not only increase the Libs primary vote by 2%, he will also need to greatly increase the share of minor party preferences. It won't happen." Danby got over the line very comfortably, in the end, with only the slightest swing to the Liberals. Still, Southwick deserves another shot in three years time.

- Wentworth, NSW: "Turnbull to hold the seat for the Liberals." Turnbull got home safely in the end, although if the Greens had have sent preferences to King ahead of the ALP, things might have been different. As a footnote, King was on Sunday expelled from the Liberal Party for 10 years. Ouch.

So in the end, the predictions were pretty darn good. Out of 10, 7 were correct, 1 was incorrect, and 2 are still too close to call. Taking the two close ones out of it, that gives me a success rate of 87.5%. Not bad!

And just quickly, the more general predictions:
- "Coalition to win with a seven seat majority." - Right result, wrong size.
- "The Nationals to lose three seats." - Not three, but one (Richmond).
- "The Greens to not gain a single House of Reps seat." - Correct.
- "The Liberals to hold most of the marginals in Victoria." - Correct.
- "In Tasmania, Bass (but not Bradden, as predicted two days ago) will fall to the Liberals." - Nope, they both fell, like trees in the forest.
- "In the Senate, this will be the fall of the numbers: Coalition: 38, Labor: 27,
Greens: 7, Democrats: 4" Not really close at all. Understated coalition by one, overstated Greens and Labor, understated Family First. Got the Democrats spot-on, though.



2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ari,
You're predictions are sure to see you replace Roy Morgan as one of the premier political analysts in the country. One could safely bet the house on them. Next election I just may at centerbet.

Anonymous said...

Ari,
You're predictions are sure to see you replace Roy Morgan as one of the premier political analysts in the country. One could safely bet the house on them. Next election I just may at centerbet.