Seat Watch - Canning

According to the AEC, Alfred Canning was a surveyor who pioneered stock roads and rabbit proof fences in WA, which of course has absolutely nothing to do with the film of the same name. Marginally less irrelevant is the fact that the seat lies in outer metro Perth and is the third most marginal seat in the country, having been won by 0.4% by the Liberal's Don Randall in 2001. Randall did his own personal Lazurus, having heald the seat of Swan for a single term after the Howard landslide of '96.

Canning is one of the seats that the ALP should win if they are to win government. Demographically, it is a good snapshot of middle Australia, with levels of employment, age and income mid-range (see Mumble for actual facts rather than broad generalisations). The ALP have preselected the wonderfully named Cimlie Bowden, a Perth nurse with CPSU connections. The seat includes enough ruralandregionalaustralia to cause the ALP a few headaches.

Prediction - Randall will avoid being a one-term-wonder for a second time and will hold the seat.


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